with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one). We extend our approach to other countries, finding elevated levels of economic policy uncertainty abroad, as well. Panel B. European index and its constituents: Political_Europe: Baker et al. Figure 1 US economic policy uncertainty index, ... from US and European policy responses to the crisis, to fights over US fiscal policy in the 2011-2013 period, and to Brexit and the US elections in 2016. 1 For the US case, they rely on a large press and time coverage. Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Europe Though Europe budget balance index fluctuated substantially in recent months, it tended to decrease through April 2009 - March 2014 period ending at 110.98 index in March 2014. ..... 28 Figure 4. This news-based index can also contribute to overall country risk estimations and market potential assessments. The European economic policy uncertainty index (EEPU) is based on the work of Baker et al. The results show that the global economic policy uncertainty provides the highest predictive gains, followed by the European and US stock market realized volatilities. Not surprisingly the US, EU and UK were at all time highs at the most recent index point on October 31, 2016, just before the US elections and with no clear direction post the Brexit vote, but Chinese economic policy is also highly uncertain. uncertainty index for nine Eastern European countries—a region in which the construction of other economic policy uncertainty indices would require good language proficiency. cDG ECFIN, European Commission March 25, 2014 Abstract Economists argue that high levels of policy uncertainty have been the reason for the slow economic recovery from the great recession of 2007-2009. Policy uncertainty (also called regime uncertainty) is a class of economic risk where the future path of government policy is uncertain, raising risk premia and leading businesses and individuals to delay spending and investment until this uncertainty has been resolved. For European countries, they restrict the press coverage to two newspapers per country, i.e. For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of the model, see Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis (2012), "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty" The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. Right panel: m easures of economic policy uncertainty are taken from Baker, S., Bloom, N. and Davis, S., “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty”, Chicago Booth Research Paper No 13/02, January 2013. 9 It also reports an overall economic uncertainty (EU) index that drops the policy requirement in the EPU index. Downloadable! In addition, the European stock market implied volatility index is shown to be an important predictor of the economic policy uncertainty. El País and El Mundo in the Spanish case. We illustratively show The role of the cement industry and government working together to deliver the objectives for the Green Deal were the subject of Cementing Europe's Future - Building the Green Deal, organised by Cembureau this week in its online event. We construct a new index of uncertainty — the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) — for 143 individual countries on a quarterly basis from 1996 onwards. These indices rest on newspaper searches with term sets related to economy, policy and uncertainty. and cover banking (EPUB), currency (EPUC), taxes (EPUT), debt (EPUD), pension (EPUP), and monetary policy (EPUM). In 2015, economists Huseyin Gulen and Mihai Ion found that economic policy uncertainty has a strong negative correlation to business investment.